Do early effects of predictability in visual word recognition reflect prediction error? Electrophysiological research investigating word processing has demonstrated predictability effects in the N1, or first negative component of the event-related potential (ERP). However, findings regarding the magnitude of effects and potential interactions of predictability with lexical variables have been inconsistent. Moreover, past studies have typically used categorical designs with relatively small samples and relied on by-participant analyses. Nevertheless, reports have generally shown that predicted words elicit less negative-going (i.e., lower amplitude) N1s, a pattern consistent with a simple predictive coding account. In our preregistered study, we tested this account via the interaction between prediction magnitude and certainty. A picture-word verification paradigm was implemented in which pictures were followed by tightly matched picture-congruent or picture-incongruent written nouns. The predictability of target (picture-congruent) nouns was manipulated continuously based on norms of association between a picture and its name. ERPs from 68 participants revealed a pattern of effects opposite to that expected under a simple predictive coding framework.